Forecast Error Is the Only Honest KPI
Why point accuracy is a vanity metric, and what error distributions reveal about model health.
Applied forecasting philosophy
Forecasts are probabilistic instruments, not commitments.
Most FP&A teams treat them as narratives. That is the failure mode.
Forecast Reality documents an applied approach to forecasting grounded in error, uncertainty, and decision quality. It focuses on how forecasts behave in operating environments, not how they are presented in decks.
The core premise is simple: a forecast that cannot describe its error is not decision support. It is storytelling.
Focus
Forecast error, confidence intervals, bias, and driver integrity. Why best and worst case thinking fails. How finance teams should operate when uncertainty cannot be eliminated.
Confidence Intervals Beat Best and Worst Case Scenarios
Why scenarios collapse probability and how intervals preserve uncertainty for decision making.
Audience
Finance leaders and analytically literate managers who rely on forecasts to allocate capital, set targets, and manage risk.
Not a consulting site
This is a record of applied forecasting thinking developed inside real finance and analytics functions.
Related: chrisalbertbaker.com